Toronto Blue Jays Team report

Automated SABRhood research report for the Toronto Blue Jays.
SABRhood team report

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays ranks 29th in run generation and 15th in pitching performance, with a taxed bullpen and 0 recent risers.

League intelligence# 25 33.0 index
Run generation#29
Composite score 16.2
Pitching#15
Composite score 49.8
Recent play#19
0 recent risers
Bullpen readiness#30
Current state taxed
Roster construction

Where this club creates, and loses, WAR

Players are split by position and total WAR is calculated; the green border indicates a club is top-ten in positional WAR, the red border indicates a bottom-ten club.

Best value pocketsRelief pitching / Second baseClearest upgrade lanesDesignated hitter
CStrength

Catcher

2.6WAR#7 of 30
Top valueBrandon Valenzuela1.8 WAR
1BMiddle

First base

0.5WAR#20 of 30
Top valueVladimir Guerrero Jr.1.1 WAR
2BStrength

Second base

2.8WAR#6 of 30
Top valueErnie Clement1.5 WAR
3BStrength

Third base

2.0WAR#10 of 29
Top valueKazuma Okamoto2.0 WAR
OFMiddle

Outfield

3.5WAR#16 of 30
Top valueDaulton Varsho1.2 WAR
DHNeed

Designated hitter

-0.1WAR#13 of 20
Top valueEloy Jiménez-0.1 WAR
SPMiddle

Starting pitching

7.9WAR#15 of 30
Top valueDylan Cease4.3 WAR
RPStrength

Relief pitching

5.4WAR#2 of 30
Top valueLouis Varland2.5 WAR
Broadcast three

Water cooler notes

Three concise, evidence-linked notes to start a broadcast conversation.

  1. 1
    team identity

    Toronto Blue Jays’s analytical identity

    Toronto Blue Jays ranks 29th in run generation and 15th in pitching performance, with a taxed bullpen and 0 recent risers.

  2. 2
    form driver

    Louis Varland is the strongest recent pitcher signal

    Recent OPS allowed 0.360 versus 0.514 previously.

  3. 3
    matchup edge

    Mason Fluharty is limiting left-handed batters more effectively

    Estimated wOBA: 0.188 vs L, 0.382 vs R.

Why it changed

Player movement with league context attached

The recent-window shift and the full-season league standing are separate, so a surge never floats free of the player’s actual level.

Pitcher change profile

Dylan Cease

Toronto Blue Jays | RHP

52.3
Season BF689OPS allowed0.543Est. wOBA allowed0.249Samplestrong
Biggest changewalk rate allowed -3.24 z

Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.2 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 14th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed95th
0.543
Est. wOBA allowed92nd
0.249
Strikeout rate97th
34.7%
Walk rate allowed14th
11.3%
Hard-hit rate allowed91st
31.5%
Run value allowed / PA88th
-0.044
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed-0.69 z
Recent 0.749 baseline 0.531
Est. wOBA allowed-0.93 z
Recent 0.353 baseline 0.242
Strikeout rate-0.71 z
Recent 29.3% baseline 35.0%
Walk rate allowed-3.24 z
Recent 26.8% baseline 10.3%
Hard-hit rate allowed+1.41 z
Recent 16.7% baseline 32.3%
Run value allowed / PA-0.79 z
Recent 0.042 baseline -0.049
Broadcast read: Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.2 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 14th percentile. Recent sample: 41 BF; prior sample: 648 BF.
Pitcher change profile

Joe Mantiply

Toronto Blue Jays | LHP

32.9
Season BF112OPS allowed0.717Est. wOBA allowed0.309Samplemoderate
Biggest changehard-hit rate allowed +2.23 z

Hard-hit rate allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 2.2 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 41st percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed40th
0.717
Est. wOBA allowed45th
0.309
Strikeout rate31st
19.6%
Walk rate allowed97th
4.5%
Hard-hit rate allowed41st
38.6%
Run value allowed / PA72nd
-0.023
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed-0.99 z
Recent 0.955 baseline 0.653
Est. wOBA allowed-1.01 z
Recent 0.404 baseline 0.285
Strikeout rate-1.66 z
Recent 9.1% baseline 22.2%
Walk rate allowed+1.01 z
Recent 0.0% baseline 5.6%
Hard-hit rate allowed+2.23 z
Recent 20.0% baseline 44.4%
Run value allowed / PA-1.04 z
Recent 0.071 baseline -0.045
Broadcast read: Hard-hit rate allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 2.2 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 41st percentile. Recent sample: 22 BF; prior sample: 90 BF.
Team highs

The category leaders inside this clubhouse

Familiar production now sits beside tracked force: 100+ mph contact and pitches are shown as both totals and opportunity rates.

Club contact

100+ mph batted balls

Tracked-contact season total

  1. 1Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Toronto Blue Jays143
  2. 2Kazuma OkamotoToronto Blue Jays102
  3. 3George SpringerToronto Blue Jays82
  4. 4Alejandro KirkToronto Blue Jays58
  5. 5Andrés GiménezToronto Blue Jays41
Club contact

100+ mph contact rate

Minimum 30 tracked batted balls

  1. 1Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Toronto Blue Jays31.3%
  2. 2Yohendrick PiñangoToronto Blue Jays31.2%
  3. 3Sean KeysToronto Blue Jays28.1%
  4. 4Kazuma OkamotoToronto Blue Jays27.0%
  5. 5Alejandro KirkToronto Blue Jays25.1%
Club velocity

Pitches at 100+ mph

Across every pitch type

  1. 1Louis VarlandToronto Blue Jays61
  2. 2José SorianoToronto Blue Jays5
  3. 3Dylan CeaseToronto Blue Jays3
  4. 4Spencer MilesToronto Blue Jays1
  5. 5José RodríguezToronto Blue Jays0
Club velocity

100+ mph pitch rate

Minimum 100 tracked pitches

  1. 1Louis VarlandToronto Blue Jays5.0%
  2. 2José SorianoToronto Blue Jays0.2%
  3. 3Dylan CeaseToronto Blue Jays0.1%
  4. 4Spencer MilesToronto Blue Jays0.1%
  5. 5Yariel RodríguezToronto Blue Jays0.0%
Club offense

Batting average

Best qualified contact results

  1. 1Brett BatemanToronto Blue Jays0.318
  2. 2Alejandro KirkToronto Blue Jays0.283
  3. 3Nathan LukesToronto Blue Jays0.273
  4. 4Ernie ClementToronto Blue Jays0.263
  5. 5Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Toronto Blue Jays0.262
Club offense

Home runs

The club power board

  1. 1Kazuma OkamotoToronto Blue Jays33
  2. 2George SpringerToronto Blue Jays15
  3. 3Alejandro KirkToronto Blue Jays10
  4. 4Nathan LukesToronto Blue Jays10
  5. 5Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Toronto Blue Jays9
Club offense

OPS

On-base and slugging production

  1. 1Brett BatemanToronto Blue Jays0.802
  2. 2Kazuma OkamotoToronto Blue Jays0.769
  3. 3Alejandro KirkToronto Blue Jays0.766
  4. 4George SpringerToronto Blue Jays0.732
  5. 5Nathan LukesToronto Blue Jays0.707
Club pitching

Strikeouts

Total batters finished by strikeout

  1. 1Dylan CeaseToronto Blue Jays239
  2. 2José SorianoToronto Blue Jays167
  3. 3Spencer ArrighettiToronto Blue Jays106
  4. 4Louis VarlandToronto Blue Jays95
  5. 5Trey YesavageToronto Blue Jays94
Club pitching

Strikeout rate

Strikeouts per batter faced

  1. 1Dylan CeaseToronto Blue Jays34.7%
  2. 2Brendon LittleToronto Blue Jays34.4%
  3. 3Louis VarlandToronto Blue Jays31.2%
  4. 4Paul SewaldToronto Blue Jays25.1%
  5. 5Mason FluhartyToronto Blue Jays25.1%
Club pitching

Lowest OPS allowed

Qualified opponent production

  1. 1Louis VarlandToronto Blue Jays0.502
  2. 2Dylan CeaseToronto Blue Jays0.543
  3. 3Spencer MilesToronto Blue Jays0.560
  4. 4Tyler RogersToronto Blue Jays0.561
  5. 5Trey YesavageToronto Blue Jays0.626
Ace-in-the-Hole

The staff ace’s complete arsenal

The highest-WAR qualified starter leads the card. Every tracked offering is shown with usage, pitch traits, outcomes, and same-pitch MLB percentiles.

Staff ace · RHP

Dylan Cease

119.1 IP · 2.41 ERA · 4.3 WAR

2,893 tracked pitches
Pitch Use Velo Whiff Chase Zone Putaway Hard hit
Four-Seam FastballFF · 1,072 pitches 37.1% 96.883rd pct 21.4%73rd pct 32.3%80th pct 47.5%16th pct 0.0%100th pct 37.3%78th pct
SliderSL · 870 pitches 30.1% 88.783rd pct 41.6%91st pct 43.4%96th pct 38.5%25th pct 0.0%100th pct 24.6%90th pct
ChangeupCH · 330 pitches 11.4% 81.410th pct 44.7%96th pct 16.3%1st pct 38.8%62nd pct 0.0%100th pct 22.9%84th pct
Knuckle CurveKC · 292 pitches 10.1% 81.748th pct 28.6%45th pct 17.2%3rd pct 36.3%38th pct 0.0%100th pct 40.9%48th pct
SinkerSI · 228 pitches 7.9% 95.876th pct 12.3%61st pct 30.4%73rd pct 49.6%10th pct 0.0%100th pct 35.7%75th pct
SweeperST · 101 pitches 3.5% 83.460th pct 22.6%20th pct 23.8%12th pct 37.6%21st pct 0.0%100th pct 28.6%54th pct
Percentiles compare each pitch only with the same MLB pitch type and a minimum 50-pitch peer sample. Hard-hit percentile is reversed so a higher percentile is better.
Matchup intelligence

The largest qualified handedness edges

pitcher edge83.2

Mason Fluharty

Toronto Blue Jays

Mason Fluharty is limiting left-handed batters more effectively

vs L0.188
vs R0.382

Estimated wOBA: 0.188 vs L, 0.382 vs R.

pitcher edge77.8

Michael Lorenzen

Toronto Blue Jays

Michael Lorenzen is limiting right-handed batters more effectively

vs L0.436
vs R0.355

Estimated wOBA: 0.436 vs L, 0.355 vs R.

pitcher edge75.8

Max Scherzer

Toronto Blue Jays

Max Scherzer is limiting right-handed batters more effectively

vs L0.367
vs R0.252

Estimated wOBA: 0.367 vs L, 0.253 vs R.

Bullpen decision board

Best available matchup for either side

The board now shows only the highest-ranked active reliever against a left-handed hitter and a right-handed hitter. Workload availability, role, season performance, and handedness all remain visible.

Left-handed batter81.3

Brendan Cellucci

LHP · available · 2 days rest

Availability84.4%Matchup100.0%Performance50.0%
Right-handed batter81.5

Chad Dallas

RHP · available · 26 days rest

Availability100.0%Matchup70.0%Performance50.0%
Story leads

Team Headlines

Subject Reporting lead Score
Dylan Cease Dylan Cease is limiting opponent production at an elite rate 92.1
Louis Varland Louis Varland is limiting opponent production at an elite rate 87.6
Dylan Cease Dylan Cease’s Slider: 88.7 mph, 41.6% whiffs 82.4
Spencer Miles Spencer Miles is limiting opponent production at an elite rate 81.9
Trey Yesavage Trey Yesavage is limiting opponent production at an elite rate 78.3
Mason Fluharty Mason Fluharty is limiting opponent production at an elite rate 77.5
Research status: this automated report is a reporting foundation, not a finished scouting report. Active rosters are date-stamped; injuries, same-day transactions, probable pitchers, and opponent context still require pregame confirmation.