Projections

Daily simulation center

A forecast is a range of game stories, not one final score

The simulator turns current game inputs into transparent win probabilities, score ranges, matchup drivers, bullpen effects, and player opportunities, with uncertainty visible everywhere.

Daily forecast board Today’s slate, ordered by first pitchProbable starters, posted orders, active rosters, park, first-pitch weather, recent workload, and bullpen availability

Live input assembly · September 09, 2026

Today’s projection inputs

BaseballR supplies the schedule, probable starters, posted orders, and active rosters. Park coordinates route each game to Open-Meteo: the displayed temperature, wind, rain chance, and conditions come from the forecast hour nearest first pitch, while a separate five-hour game window tracks changing rain and gust risk.

Schedule

MLB games

15

Game IDs, teams, first pitch, venue, and status.

Posted orders

Complete games

9/15

198 confirmed batting-order rows.

Active roster gate

Verified players

840

266 workload-qualified bullpen rows remain after the roster join.

Park weather

Resolved games

15/15

15 of 15 park environments resolved

Away	Home	Away starter	Home starter	Away order	Home order	Park weather	Temp	Wind	Rain	Input state
Minnesota Twins	Detroit Tigers	Zebby Matthews	Keider Montero	confirmed	confirmed	Detroit, Michigan	71 F	2.8 mph	5%	ready
Toronto Blue Jays	Athletics	Braydon Fisher	Brady Basso	confirmed	confirmed	West Sacramento, California	69 F	4.2 mph	0%	ready
St. Louis Cardinals	San Francisco Giants	Andre Pallante	Blade Tidwell	confirmed	confirmed	San Francisco, California	68 F	4.9 mph	0%	ready
Washington Nationals	San Diego Padres	Jackson Kent	Walker Buehler	confirmed	confirmed	San Diego, California	81 F	3.5 mph	1%	ready
Texas Rangers	Seattle Mariners	Cody Bradford	Kade Anderson	confirmed	confirmed	Seattle, Washington	58 F	2.7 mph	0%	ready
Cleveland Guardians	Baltimore Orioles	Foster Griffin	Shane Baz	confirmed	missing	Baltimore, Maryland	72 F	1.9 mph	0%	conditional
Houston Astros	Philadelphia Phillies	Hunter Brown	Cristopher Sánchez	confirmed	confirmed	Philadelphia, Pennsylvania	71 F	0.7 mph	0%	ready
New York Mets	Miami Marlins	Robert Stock	Janson Junk	missing	confirmed	Miami, Florida	80 F	1.7 mph	9%	conditional
Los Angeles Angels	Boston Red Sox	Ryan Johnson	Jake Bennett	confirmed	confirmed	Boston, Massachusetts	63 F	2.3 mph	0%	ready
Colorado Rockies	New York Yankees	Tomoyuki Sugano	Will Warren	confirmed	confirmed	Bronx, New York	69 F	1.8 mph	0%	ready
Tampa Bay Rays	Atlanta Braves	Griffin Jax	Reynaldo López	missing	confirmed	Atlanta, Georgia	72 F	2.5 mph	0%	conditional
Arizona Diamondbacks	Kansas City Royals	Zac Gallen	Daniel Lynch IV	confirmed	confirmed	Kansas City, Missouri	86 F	9.6 mph	0%	ready
Pittsburgh Pirates	Chicago White Sox	Lake Bachar	Davis Martin	missing	confirmed	Chicago, Illinois	74 F	5.1 mph	11%	conditional
Chicago Cubs	Milwaukee Brewers	Kevin Gausman	Logan Henderson	missing	missing	Milwaukee, Wisconsin	71 F	5.6 mph	56%	conditional
Cincinnati Reds	Los Angeles Dodgers	Rhett Lowder	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	missing	missing	Los Angeles, California	76 F	7.1 mph	1%	conditional

Current boundary: a resolved input row is not the same as a validated forecast. Starter, lineup, active-roster bullpen, and temperature effects now enter the score model; park factors, fresh reliever workload, and out-of-time calibration remain open gates.

Player simulation board · 2,000 draws per lineup

Player outcomes now live inside the game simulation

Confirmed orders are simulated through two continuous phases: the probable starter, then the opposing active-roster bullpen. The same draws produce full-game hitter lines and starter strikeout distributions.

Starter + bullpen Monte Carlo

Home-run probability leaders

Full-game hitter draws include posted batting-order opportunity, the probable starter, the active-roster bullpen quality layer, and the run environment.

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Probability	Mean
1	Max Clark	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins	34.9%	0.41
2	Shay Whitcomb	San Francisco Giants	St. Louis Cardinals	28.7%	0.32
3	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	28.6%	0.32
4	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Houston Astros	28.3%	0.33
5	Brian Serven	Athletics	Toronto Blue Jays	28.2%	0.31
6	Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	27.5%	0.31
7	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	New York Yankees	26.9%	0.31
8	Griffin Conine	Miami Marlins	New York Mets	26.6%	0.30
9	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	Pittsburgh Pirates	25.8%	0.29
10	John Rave	Kansas City Royals	Arizona Diamondbacks	24.8%	0.28

Starter + bullpen Monte Carlo

Hit probability leaders

Each hitter continues through the same batting order when the simulation moves from the starter phase to the bullpen.

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Probability	Mean
1	Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins	New York Mets	77.3%	1.24
2	Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City Royals	Arizona Diamondbacks	75.3%	1.21
3	Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies	Houston Astros	75.2%	1.20
4	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	75.0%	1.21
5	Luis García Jr.	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	74.4%	1.17
6	Kevin McGonigle	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins	74.2%	1.17
7	Hao-Yu Lee	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins	73.3%	1.14
8	Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies	New York Yankees	73.3%	1.14
9	Mickey Gasper	Boston Red Sox	Los Angeles Angels	72.2%	1.12
10	Colt Keith	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins	72.1%	1.12

Starter + bullpen Monte Carlo

Extra-base-hit probability leaders

Doubles, triples, and home runs are simulated as mutually exclusive plate-appearance outcomes.

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Probability	Mean
1	Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	Arizona Diamondbacks	41.9%	0.50
2	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	41.0%	0.50
3	Nick Sogard	Boston Red Sox	Los Angeles Angels	40.6%	0.47
4	Luis García Jr.	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	40.5%	0.50
5	Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies	New York Yankees	40.2%	0.48
6	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	New York Mets	40.0%	0.48
7	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	San Diego Padres	39.0%	0.47
8	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Detroit Tigers	38.9%	0.46
9	Ty France	San Diego Padres	Washington Nationals	38.9%	0.47
10	Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins	New York Mets	38.5%	0.46

Starter + bullpen Monte Carlo

Two-plus total-base leaders

The total-base board preserves each simulated event mix instead of treating every hit as equivalent.

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Probability	Mean
1	Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins	New York Mets	52.1%	1.91
2	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	51.7%	2.37
3	Luis García Jr.	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	51.0%	2.22
4	Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City Royals	Arizona Diamondbacks	50.3%	2.00
5	Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies	New York Yankees	50.0%	1.86
6	Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	Arizona Diamondbacks	49.5%	1.96
7	Ty France	San Diego Padres	Washington Nationals	47.4%	2.09
8	Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies	Houston Astros	47.4%	1.70
9	Mickey Gasper	Boston Red Sox	Los Angeles Angels	47.3%	1.60
10	Kevin McGonigle	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins	47.2%	1.81

Starter + bullpen Monte Carlo

Five-plus strikeout leaders

Probable starters draw a game-specific batters-faced distribution against the posted opposing order.

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Probability	Mean
1	Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates	Chicago White Sox	85.8%	7.09
2	Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays	Athletics	83.6%	6.80
3	Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies	Houston Astros	72.4%	5.82
4	Brady Basso	Athletics	Toronto Blue Jays	64.9%	5.35
5	Kade Anderson	Seattle Mariners	Texas Rangers	62.3%	5.22
6	Robert Stock	New York Mets	Miami Marlins	62.1%	5.24
7	Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals	San Diego Padres	61.2%	5.16
8	Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox	Los Angeles Angels	61.0%	5.17
9	Will Warren	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	58.8%	5.06
10	Hunter Brown	Houston Astros	Philadelphia Phillies	58.7%	5.03

Starter + bullpen Monte Carlo

Seven-plus strikeout leaders

The upper-tail board responds to starter workload, the opposing order, and both pitcher and hitter strikeout rates.

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Probability	Mean
1	Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates	Chicago White Sox	58.6%	7.09
2	Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays	Athletics	53.6%	6.80
3	Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies	Houston Astros	36.0%	5.82
4	Brady Basso	Athletics	Toronto Blue Jays	27.8%	5.35
5	Robert Stock	New York Mets	Miami Marlins	26.7%	5.24
6	Kade Anderson	Seattle Mariners	Texas Rangers	25.7%	5.22
7	Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox	Los Angeles Angels	25.1%	5.17
8	Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals	San Diego Padres	24.0%	5.16
9	Will Warren	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies	23.2%	5.06
10	Hunter Brown	Houston Astros	Philadelphia Phillies	22.0%	5.03

How to read it: each percentage is the share of simulated games in which the player reached that threshold. Posted batting-order opportunity, starter matchup, bullpen quality, park, and weather all move the distribution.

Game projections

The entire slate in one scan

Each game card shows the simulated win split, score center, uncertainty, and current input status.

Game 1 · scheduled slateClear lean

AwayMinnesota Twins35.5%

HomeDetroit Tigers64.5%

Mean score4.4 – 5.6Model total10.0One-run game31.9%

Detroit Tigers 64.5%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters

Game 2 · scheduled slateClear lean

AwayToronto Blue Jays38.0%

HomeAthletics62.0%

Mean score3.5 – 4.3Model total7.8One-run game36.5%

Athletics 62.0%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters

Game 3 · scheduled slateNear toss-up

AwaySt. Louis Cardinals47.5%

HomeSan Francisco Giants52.5%

Mean score3.7 – 3.8Model total7.5One-run game39.1%

San Francisco Giants 52.5%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters

Game 4 · scheduled slateNear toss-up

AwayWashington Nationals53.9%

HomeSan Diego Padres46.1%

Mean score4.7 – 4.5Model total9.2One-run game35.3%

Washington Nationals 53.9%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · fallback starters

Game 5 · scheduled slateNear toss-up

AwayTexas Rangers48.2%

HomeSeattle Mariners51.8%

Mean score4.2 – 4.4Model total8.6One-run game36.7%

Seattle Mariners 51.8%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · fallback starters

Game 6 · scheduled slateNarrow lean

AwayCleveland Guardians45.0%

HomeBaltimore Orioles55.0%

Mean score3.9 – 4.3Model total8.2One-run game37.4%

Baltimore Orioles 55.0%20,000 draws · conditional orders · matched starters

Game 7 · scheduled slateClear lean

AwayHouston Astros29.5%

HomePhiladelphia Phillies70.5%

Mean score3.3 – 4.8Model total8.1One-run game32.7%

Philadelphia Phillies 70.5%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters

Game 8 · scheduled slateNarrow lean

AwayNew York Mets44.4%

HomeMiami Marlins55.6%

Mean score4.3 – 4.7Model total8.9One-run game35.8%

Miami Marlins 55.6%20,000 draws · conditional orders · fallback starters

Game 9 · scheduled slateClear lean

AwayLos Angeles Angels29.9%

HomeBoston Red Sox70.1%

Mean score3.3 – 4.9Model total8.2One-run game33.0%

Boston Red Sox 70.1%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters

Game 10 · scheduled slateClear lean

AwayColorado Rockies28.5%

HomeNew York Yankees71.5%

Mean score4.1 – 5.8Model total9.9One-run game29.9%

New York Yankees 71.5%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters

Game 11 · scheduled slateNear toss-up

AwayTampa Bay Rays50.9%

HomeAtlanta Braves49.1%

Mean score4.3 – 4.3Model total8.6One-run game36.9%

Tampa Bay Rays 50.9%20,000 draws · conditional orders · matched starters

Game 12 · scheduled slateClear lean

AwayArizona Diamondbacks30.2%

HomeKansas City Royals69.8%

Mean score3.9 – 5.5Model total9.5One-run game31.3%

Kansas City Royals 69.8%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters

Game 13 · scheduled slateClear lean

AwayPittsburgh Pirates40.0%

HomeChicago White Sox60.0%

Mean score4.0 – 4.7Model total8.7One-run game35.3%

Chicago White Sox 60.0%20,000 draws · conditional orders · matched starters

Game 14 · scheduled slateClear lean

AwayChicago Cubs36.9%

HomeMilwaukee Brewers63.1%

Mean score3.6 – 4.5Model total8.1One-run game35.7%

Milwaukee Brewers 63.1%20,000 draws · conditional orders · matched starters

Game 15 · scheduled slateClear lean

AwayCincinnati Reds20.3%

HomeLos Angeles Dodgers79.7%

Mean score3.2 – 5.7Model total8.9One-run game26.9%

Los Angeles Dodgers 79.7%20,000 draws · conditional orders · matched starters

Feature simulation · 20,000 draws

Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves

The closest matchup on today’s scheduled slate pairs the score distribution with the players most likely to produce a defining performance.

Model leanTampa Bay Rays50.9%

Tampa Bay Rays4.380% range 2–7

at

Atlanta Braves4.380% range 2–7

Winning-margin distributionAway ← outcome → Home

Away by 5+

6.2%

Away by 3-4

13.5%

Away by 2

12.7%

Away by 1

18.5%

Home by 1

18.4%

Home by 2

12.0%

Home by 3-4

13.2%

Home by 5+

5.5%

Why the model lands hereLeague ranks

1. Posted-lineup offenseAtlanta Braves104 vs 107 blended wRC+ after platoon, contact-quality, and recent-form adjustments
2. Probable starterTampa Bay RaysGriffin Jax 3.82 over 5.1 expected IP vs Reynaldo López 4.22 over 6.2 expected IP
3. Available bullpenAtlanta Braves3.46 vs 3.15 FIP blend with active reliever selector
4. Park and weatherRun environment72 F temperature adjustment; park factor 1

Projected standout performancesHighest-upside player outcomes in this matchup

2+ home runs

Matt Olson

2.1%Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays · expected 0.25

10+ strikeouts

Griffin Jax

1.3%Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves · expected 4.89

3+ total bases

Matt Olson

29.2%Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays · expected 1.85

7+ strikeouts

Griffin Jax

21.1%Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves · expected 4.89

Public model audit

What the archived forecasts have actually done

Every number below comes from a prediction saved before first pitch and graded after the game became final.

Correct winner56.0%646 settled games

Final-total error3.54Mean absolute runs

Player props graded72,828Across published event types

Average prop gap1.8%Prediction vs. observed rate

Reading the audit: accuracy describes winner selection, while the calibration gap asks whether an event projected at a given rate occurred at roughly that rate. The sample is still growing and is reported without hiding misses.

Forecast boundary: these are probabilistic research outputs, not betting advice. The public audit is updated from forecasts archived before first pitch.

The board is rebuilt from the latest available schedule, probable starters, posted lineups, active rosters, park conditions, first-pitch weather, recent workload, and bullpen availability. These are probabilistic research outputs rather than betting advice.