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Today

The daily MLB signal desk from The SABRhood.

The daily desk

Today in the SABRhood

The schedule-first research desk: what is happening tonight, who is expected to play, and which matchup signals deserve follow-up.

Data through July 25, 2026Method-labeled signals, not black-box claims.
Daily game research

Every matchup gets an evidence-first briefing

Probable starters, posted orders, park weather, team strength, active-roster bullpen options, and the strongest qualified change signal are assembled without pretending they are already a calibrated forecast.

Complete research inputsLineup or starter still conditionalChange context uses the displayed performance cutoff
12:15 PM ET · Tropicana Field

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays

Conditional inputs
Indoor environmentmissing / missing orders
Cleveland GuardiansParker Messick
#17 team index

Parker Messickwalk rate allowed +1.4 SD · improving · 53rd season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Erik Sabrowski (L)

Tampa Bay RaysDrew Rasmussen
#3 team index

Drew Rasmussenwalk rate allowed -1.0 SD · declining · 95th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Cam Booser (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
1:35 PM ET · Nationals Park

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

Conditional inputs
Clear · 69 F · 2.3 mph windmissing / missing orders
Arizona DiamondbacksKohl Drake
#16 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Brandyn Garcia (L)

Washington NationalsMiles Mikolas
#10 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Matt Krook (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
1:35 PM ET · PNC Park

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

Conditional inputs
Clear · 67 F · 1.7 mph windmissing / missing orders
Chicago CubsJameson Taillon
#5 team index

Jameson Taillonstrikeout rate +1.1 SD · improving · 41st season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Ryan Rolison (L)

Pittsburgh PiratesBraxton Ashcraft
#8 team index

Braxton Ashcraftrun value allowed per PA -3.7 SD · declining · 52nd season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Brandon Eisert (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
1:35 PM ET · Fenway Park

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Conditional inputs
Clear · 57 F · 3.5 mph windmissing / missing orders
Toronto Blue JaysKevin Gausman
#26 team index

Kevin Gausmanwalk rate allowed -1.2 SD · declining · 68th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Louis Varland (R)

Boston Red SoxRanger Suarez
#15 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Jovani Morán (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
1:35 PM ET · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles

Conditional inputs
Clear · 68 F · 3.3 mph windmissing / missing orders
Atlanta BravesReynaldo López
#4 team index

Reynaldo LópezOPS allowed -2.8 SD · declining · 29th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Dylan Dodd (L)

Baltimore OriolesShane Baz
#11 team index

Shane Bazwalk rate allowed +1.6 SD · improving · 43rd season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Josh Walker (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
1:40 PM ET · Comerica Park

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Conditional inputs
Clear · 67 F · 4.2 mph windmissing / missing orders
Kansas City RoyalsLuinder Avila
#24 team index

Luinder Avilawalk rate allowed +1.7 SD · improving · 6th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Daniel Lynch IV (L)

Detroit TigersFramber Valdez
#6 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Ty Madden (R)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
1:40 PM ET · Citi Field

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets

Conditional inputs
Clear · 63 F · 3.5 mph windmissing / missing orders
Los Angeles DodgersEmmet Sheehan
#1 team index

Emmet Sheehanhard-hit rate allowed -0.9 SD · declining · 40th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Alex Vesia (L)

New York MetsFreddy Peralta
#29 team index

Freddy PeraltaOPS allowed -1.4 SD · declining · 25th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Luke Weaver (R)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
1:40 PM ET · loanDepot park

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins

Conditional inputs
Clear · 80 F · 2.8 mph windmissing / missing orders
San Diego PadresWalker Buehler
#30 team index

Walker Buehlerwalk rate allowed -2.8 SD · declining · 26th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Yuki Matsui (L)

Miami MarlinsJanson Junk
#11 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Dax Fulton (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
2:10 PM ET · Target Field

Athletics at Minnesota Twins

Conditional inputs
Cloudy · 75 F · 3.6 mph windmissing / missing orders
AthleticsJeffrey Springs
#20 team index

Jeffrey Springshard-hit rate allowed -1.4 SD · declining · 68th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Brady Basso (L)

Minnesota TwinsConnor Prielipp
#25 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Kendry Rojas (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
2:10 PM ET · Rate Field

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox

Conditional inputs
Cloudy · 70 F · 5.3 mph windmissing / missing orders
Houston AstrosRonel Blanco
#18 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Bryan King (L)

Chicago White SoxErick Fedde
#13 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Sean Newcomb (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
2:10 PM ET · American Family Field

Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

Conditional inputs
Cloudy · 74 F · 5.6 mph windmissing / missing orders
Colorado RockiesKyle Freeland
#23 team index

Kyle Freelandwalk rate allowed -0.9 SD · declining · 94th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Brennan Bernardino (L)

Milwaukee BrewersJacob Misiorowski
#2 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Trevor Megill (R)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
2:15 PM ET · Busch Stadium

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

Conditional inputs
Clear · 79 F · 2.9 mph windmissing / missing orders
Cincinnati RedsAndrew Abbott
#22 team index

Andrew Abbotthard-hit rate allowed +0.6 SD · stable · 51st season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Sam Moll (L)

St. Louis CardinalsKyle Leahy
#27 team index

Kyle Leahywalk rate allowed +1.5 SD · improving · 44th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Justin Bruihl (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
2:35 PM ET · Globe Life Field

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

Conditional inputs
Clear · 85 F · 9.4 mph windmissing / missing orders
Seattle MarinersLogan Gilbert
#20 team index

Logan Gilbertstrikeout rate +2.0 SD · improving · 82nd season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: José A. Ferrer (L)

Texas RangersJacob deGrom
#8 team index

Jacob deGromhard-hit rate allowed -1.8 SD · declining · 9th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Ben Peoples (R)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
4:05 PM ET · Oracle Park

Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants

Conditional inputs
Clear · 56 F · 4.9 mph windmissing / missing orders
Los Angeles AngelsJosé Soriano
#28 team index

José Sorianostrikeout rate -1.3 SD · declining · 69th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Sam Bachman (R)

San Francisco GiantsCarson Whisenhunt
#14 team index

Starter change sample not yet qualified.

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Sam Hentges (L)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
7:20 PM ET · Citizens Bank Park

New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

Conditional inputs
Clear · 64 F · 2.8 mph windmissing / missing orders
New York YankeesWill Warren
#7 team index

Will Warrenwalk rate allowed -1.4 SD · declining · 48th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Ryan Yarbrough (L)

Philadelphia PhilliesCristopher Sánchez
#19 team index

Cristopher Sánchezrun value allowed per PA -0.9 SD · declining · 80th season percentile

No qualified change signal in the posted order.

Roster-qualified selector: Jhoan Duran (R)

Slate snapshot July 26Performance context through July 25, 2026
Recent form

Hitters changing the conversation

Fourteen-day performance compared with a non-overlapping prior-season baseline.

Hitter surging84.1

Luis Rengifo

San Diego Padres

1.227 recent OPS

Change: 0.708 | 27 recent PA

Hitter surging78.9

Ty France

San Diego Padres

1.259 recent OPS

Change: 0.458 | 44 recent PA

Hitter surging77.8

Hao-Yu Lee

Detroit Tigers

1.097 recent OPS

Change: 0.419 | 28 recent PA

Hitter surging75.9

J.T. Realmuto

Philadelphia Phillies

1.052 recent OPS

Change: 0.433 | 31 recent PA

Run prevention

Arms moving in the right direction

Pitcher surging80.9

Shane Bieber

Toronto Blue Jays

0.424 recent OPS allowed

Change: -0.666 | 46 recent PA

Pitcher surging73.7

Kumar Rocker

Texas Rangers

0.195 recent OPS allowed

Change: -0.539 | 21 recent PA

Pitcher surging73.2

Chris Roycroft

Tampa Bay Rays

0.729 recent OPS allowed

Change: -0.508 | 41 recent PA

Pitcher surging71.0

Bubba Chandler

Pittsburgh Pirates

0.293 recent OPS allowed

Change: -0.420 | 21 recent PA

History desk

On this date

Daily Lahman anniversary candidates, ranked for editorial review.

On this date80.6

Jack Morris

1977-07-26

Jack Morris: 49 years since MLB debut

Jack Morris’s MLB debut came 49 years ago today, on 1977-07-26. Jack Morris was a Hall of Famer and finished with 5 All-Star selections, 254 wins, 2,478 strikeouts.

On this date79.7

Tony Perez

1964-07-26

Tony Perez: 62 years since MLB debut

Tony Perez’s MLB debut came 62 years ago today, on 1964-07-26. Tony Perez was a Hall of Famer and finished with 7 All-Star selections, 2,732 hits, 379 home runs.

On this date75.3

Moises Alou

1990-07-26

Moises Alou: 36 years since MLB debut

Moises Alou’s MLB debut came 36 years ago today, on 1990-07-26. Moises Alou finished with 6 All-Star selections, 2,134 hits, 332 home runs.

On this date73.2

Larry Doby

1959-07-26

Larry Doby: 67 years since final MLB appearance

Larry Doby’s final MLB appearance came 67 years ago today, on 1959-07-26. Larry Doby was a Hall of Famer and finished with 8 All-Star selections, 1,697 hits, 273 home runs.

Open the Story Engine Explore matchup edges Open the performance race room Open the complete History Desk

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