Player Trend Engine

MLB player change detection with recent-versus-prior z-scores and full-season league percentiles.

Player intelligence

What changed—and how good is it?

The Trend Engine sifts six hitter and pitcher measures, finds each player’s most unusual recent movement, and keeps the full-season league context beside it.

Two lenses, one readChange z-score shows how many league standard deviations a player’s recent movement sits from ordinary movement in that statistic. Season percentile compares the full-season level with league peers.
Balanced change radar

Eight players whose underlying conversation moved

The board deliberately includes hitters, pitchers, improvements, and declines. Signal priority rewards unusual movement while accounting for recent-sample reliability.

Hitter change profile

Jonah Cox

San Francisco Giants | RHB

66.4
Season PA100OPS0.794Est. wOBA0.337Samplemoderate
Biggest changestrikeout rate +4.40 z

Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 0th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS78th
0.794
Est. wOBA74th
0.337
Strikeout rate0th
38.0%
Walk rate8th
5.0%
Hard-hit rate71st
43.9%
Run value / PA50th
0.008
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS+0.66 z
Recent 0.859 baseline 0.729
Est. wOBA+0.87 z
Recent 0.373 baseline 0.303
Strikeout rate+4.40 z
Recent 22.4% baseline 52.9%
Walk rate+2.01 z
Recent 10.2% baseline 0.0%
Hard-hit rate-0.24 z
Recent 42.4% baseline 45.8%
Run value / PA+1.79 z
Recent 0.084 baseline -0.065
Broadcast read: Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 0th percentile. Recent sample: 49 PA; prior sample: 51 PA.
Hitter change profile

Jake Bauers

Milwaukee Brewers | LHB

65.8
Season PA520OPS0.882Est. wOBA0.380Samplestrong
Biggest changewalk rate +4.36 z

Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 100th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS97th
0.882
Est. wOBA99th
0.380
Strikeout rate25th
25.8%
Walk rate100th
16.3%
Hard-hit rate96th
52.9%
Run value / PA98th
0.067
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS-0.10 z
Recent 0.843 baseline 0.881
Est. wOBA+0.46 z
Recent 0.410 baseline 0.377
Strikeout rate-0.05 z
Recent 26.1% baseline 25.7%
Walk rate+4.36 z
Recent 37.0% baseline 14.3%
Hard-hit rate-0.20 z
Recent 50.0% baseline 53.0%
Run value / PA+0.31 z
Recent 0.088 baseline 0.065
Broadcast read: Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 100th percentile. Recent sample: 46 PA; prior sample: 474 PA.
Pitcher change profile

Sean Burke

Chicago White Sox | RHP

63.2
Season BF654OPS allowed0.682Est. wOBA allowed0.298Samplestrong
Biggest changewalk rate allowed -3.74 z

Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 43rd percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed57th
0.682
Est. wOBA allowed58th
0.298
Strikeout rate76th
25.8%
Walk rate allowed43rd
8.6%
Hard-hit rate allowed43rd
38.6%
Run value allowed / PA60th
-0.014
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed-1.16 z
Recent 0.963 baseline 0.659
Est. wOBA allowed-1.31 z
Recent 0.419 baseline 0.287
Strikeout rate-0.74 z
Recent 20.4% baseline 26.3%
Walk rate allowed-3.74 z
Recent 25.9% baseline 7.0%
Hard-hit rate allowed-1.49 z
Recent 53.6% baseline 37.5%
Run value allowed / PA-1.18 z
Recent 0.086 baseline -0.023
Broadcast read: Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 43rd percentile. Recent sample: 54 BF; prior sample: 600 BF.
Pitcher change profile

Riley Cornelio

Washington Nationals | RHP

58.4
Season BF116OPS allowed0.677Est. wOBA allowed0.305Samplemoderate
Biggest changewalk rate allowed +4.02 z

Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 0th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed60th
0.677
Est. wOBA allowed50th
0.305
Strikeout rate62nd
23.3%
Walk rate allowed0th
17.2%
Hard-hit rate allowed0th
48.5%
Run value allowed / PA22nd
0.022
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed+1.16 z
Recent 0.450 baseline 0.728
Est. wOBA allowed+1.50 z
Recent 0.188 baseline 0.330
Strikeout rate+1.76 z
Recent 35.0% baseline 20.8%
Walk rate allowed+4.02 z
Recent 0.0% baseline 20.8%
Hard-hit rate allowed-2.98 z
Recent 75.0% baseline 42.9%
Run value allowed / PA+1.12 z
Recent -0.059 baseline 0.039
Broadcast read: Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 0th percentile. Recent sample: 20 BF; prior sample: 96 BF.
Pitcher change profile

Trent Thornton

Chicago Cubs | RHP

55.5
Season BF188OPS allowed0.744Est. wOBA allowed0.321Samplemoderate
Biggest changeOPS allowed -3.64 z

OPS allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.6 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 31st percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed31st
0.744
Est. wOBA allowed33rd
0.321
Strikeout rate7th
15.4%
Walk rate allowed44th
8.5%
Hard-hit rate allowed10th
43.6%
Run value allowed / PA58th
-0.012
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed-3.64 z
Recent 1.536 baseline 0.610
Est. wOBA allowed-3.59 z
Recent 0.621 baseline 0.267
Strikeout rate+0.36 z
Recent 17.9% baseline 15.0%
Walk rate allowed+0.26 z
Recent 7.1% baseline 8.8%
Hard-hit rate allowed+0.16 z
Recent 42.1% baseline 43.8%
Run value allowed / PA-2.55 z
Recent 0.186 baseline -0.047
Broadcast read: OPS allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.6 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 31st percentile. Recent sample: 28 BF; prior sample: 160 BF.
Pitcher change profile

Scott Blewett

Athletics | RHP

51.0
Season BF109OPS allowed0.583Est. wOBA allowed0.257Samplemoderate
Biggest changestrikeout rate +3.30 z

Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.3 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 60th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed87th
0.583
Est. wOBA allowed88th
0.257
Strikeout rate60th
22.9%
Walk rate allowed80th
6.4%
Hard-hit rate allowed80th
33.8%
Run value allowed / PA77th
-0.030
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed+0.90 z
Recent 0.433 baseline 0.645
Est. wOBA allowed+0.90 z
Recent 0.198 baseline 0.281
Strikeout rate+3.30 z
Recent 41.9% baseline 15.4%
Walk rate allowed-0.06 z
Recent 6.5% baseline 6.4%
Hard-hit rate allowed-2.63 z
Recent 56.2% baseline 27.9%
Run value allowed / PA+0.70 z
Recent -0.073 baseline -0.013
Broadcast read: Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.3 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 60th percentile. Recent sample: 31 BF; prior sample: 78 BF.
Hitter change profile

Tim Tawa

Arizona Diamondbacks | RHB

48.0
Season PA295OPS0.708Est. wOBA0.306Samplestrong
Biggest changestrikeout rate -2.88 z

Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 2.9 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 26th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS39th
0.708
Est. wOBA36th
0.306
Strikeout rate26th
25.4%
Walk rate37th
7.8%
Hard-hit rate73rd
44.7%
Run value / PA48th
0.007
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS+0.14 z
Recent 0.720 baseline 0.705
Est. wOBA+0.20 z
Recent 0.315 baseline 0.304
Strikeout rate-2.88 z
Recent 42.0% baseline 22.0%
Walk rate+0.58 z
Recent 10.0% baseline 7.3%
Hard-hit rate-0.73 z
Recent 37.5% baseline 45.7%
Run value / PA-0.23 z
Recent -0.013 baseline 0.012
Broadcast read: Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 2.9 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 26th percentile. Recent sample: 50 PA; prior sample: 245 PA.
Hitter change profile

Jose Siri

Los Angeles Angels | RHB

45.0
Season PA201OPS0.650Est. wOBA0.282Samplemoderate
Biggest changeestimated wOBA -2.95 z

Estimated wOBA is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 11th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS13th
0.650
Est. wOBA11th
0.282
Strikeout rate3rd
33.3%
Walk rate12th
5.5%
Hard-hit rate61st
41.7%
Run value / PA4th
-0.038
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS-2.80 z
Recent 0.108 baseline 0.742
Est. wOBA-2.95 z
Recent 0.056 baseline 0.319
Strikeout rate-1.60 z
Recent 42.9% baseline 31.8%
Walk rate-0.34 z
Recent 3.6% baseline 5.8%
Hard-hit rate+0.69 z
Recent 46.7% baseline 41.0%
Run value / PA-2.46 z
Recent -0.224 baseline -0.007
Broadcast read: Estimated wOBA is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 11th percentile. Recent sample: 28 PA; prior sample: 173 PA.
Interpretation boundary: a +2.00 z change is two league standard deviations above ordinary recent movement; a -2.00 z change is two below. Direction still depends on the statistic and player perspective. Season percentiles answer the quality question separately. Neither is a projection.

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