Player Trend Engine

MLB player change detection with recent-versus-prior z-scores and full-season league percentiles.

Player intelligence

What changed—and how good is it?

The Trend Engine sifts six hitter and pitcher measures, finds each player’s most unusual recent movement, and keeps the full-season league context beside it.

Two lenses, one readChange z-score compares each player’s recent shift with the MLB cohort. Season percentile compares the player’s full-season level with league peers.
Balanced change radar

Eight players whose underlying conversation moved

The board deliberately includes hitters, pitchers, improvements, and declines. Signal priority rewards unusual movement while accounting for recent-sample reliability.

Pitcher change profile

Joe Ryan

Minnesota Twins | RHP

59.7
Season BF479OPS allowed0.666Est. wOBA allowed0.287Samplestrong
Biggest changeestimated wOBA allowed -4.0 SD

Estimated wOBA allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 4.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 71st percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed68th
0.666
Est. wOBA allowed71st
0.287
Strikeout rate86th
27.8%
Walk rate allowed88th
5.2%
Hard-hit rate allowed23rd
42.5%
Run value allowed / PA53rd
-0.010
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed-4.0 SD
Recent 1.577 baseline 0.610
Est. wOBA allowed-4.0 SD
Recent 0.647 baseline 0.266
Strikeout rate-1.2 SD
Recent 19.2% baseline 28.3%
Walk rate allowed+0.9 SD
Recent 0.0% baseline 5.5%
Hard-hit rate allowed-0.9 SD
Recent 52.4% baseline 41.8%
Run value allowed / PA-2.5 SD
Recent 0.210 baseline -0.022
Broadcast read: Estimated wOBA allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 4.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 71st percentile. Recent sample: 26 BF; prior sample: 453 BF.
Pitcher change profile

Braxton Ashcraft

Pittsburgh Pirates | RHP

53.5
Season BF481OPS allowed0.698Est. wOBA allowed0.301Samplestrong
Biggest changerun value allowed per PA -3.7 SD

Run value allowed per PA is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 52nd percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed53rd
0.698
Est. wOBA allowed56th
0.301
Strikeout rate81st
27.0%
Walk rate allowed79th
5.8%
Hard-hit rate allowed25th
42.3%
Run value allowed / PA52nd
-0.007
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed-2.8 SD
Recent 1.342 baseline 0.669
Est. wOBA allowed-2.8 SD
Recent 0.561 baseline 0.289
Strikeout rate-2.2 SD
Recent 10.0% baseline 27.8%
Walk rate allowed-0.1 SD
Recent 5.0% baseline 5.9%
Hard-hit rate allowed-1.9 SD
Recent 64.7% baseline 41.0%
Run value allowed / PA-3.7 SD
Recent 0.324 baseline -0.022
Broadcast read: Run value allowed per PA is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 52nd percentile. Recent sample: 20 BF; prior sample: 461 BF.
Hitter change profile

Ty France

San Diego Padres | RHB

48.6
Season PA270OPS0.876Est. wOBA0.368Samplestrong
Biggest changerun value per PA +3.0 SD

Run value per PA is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 81st percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS93rd
0.876
Est. wOBA92nd
0.368
Strikeout rate34th
23.7%
Walk rate6th
4.4%
Hard-hit rate90th
50.3%
Run value / PA81st
0.039
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS+2.1 SD
Recent 1.259 baseline 0.801
Est. wOBA+2.0 SD
Recent 0.509 baseline 0.340
Strikeout rate+0.4 SD
Recent 22.7% baseline 23.9%
Walk rate+0.3 SD
Recent 4.5% baseline 4.4%
Hard-hit rate+2.3 SD
Recent 71.0% baseline 46.1%
Run value / PA+3.0 SD
Recent 0.251 baseline -0.002
Broadcast read: Run value per PA is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 81st percentile. Recent sample: 44 PA; prior sample: 226 PA.
Hitter change profile

Esmerlyn Valdez

Pittsburgh Pirates | RHB

48.4
Season PA139OPS1.057Est. wOBA0.433Samplemoderate
Biggest changewalk rate +3.0 SD

Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 92nd percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS100th
1.057
Est. wOBA100th
0.433
Strikeout rate0th
38.1%
Walk rate92nd
12.9%
Hard-hit rate97th
54.4%
Run value / PA99th
0.107
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS-0.5 SD
Recent 0.951 baseline 1.092
Est. wOBA-0.4 SD
Recent 0.400 baseline 0.446
Strikeout rate-0.8 SD
Recent 43.6% baseline 36.0%
Walk rate+3.0 SD
Recent 23.1% baseline 9.0%
Hard-hit rate+0.8 SD
Recent 61.5% baseline 52.7%
Run value / PA+0.4 SD
Recent 0.122 baseline 0.101
Broadcast read: Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 92nd percentile. Recent sample: 39 PA; prior sample: 100 PA.
Pitcher change profile

Keider Montero

Detroit Tigers | RHP

45.0
Season BF418OPS allowed0.587Est. wOBA allowed0.254Samplestrong
Biggest changestrikeout rate +2.7 SD

Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 2.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 23rd percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed91st
0.587
Est. wOBA allowed93rd
0.254
Strikeout rate23rd
18.7%
Walk rate allowed90th
5.0%
Hard-hit rate allowed54th
38.0%
Run value allowed / PA86th
-0.043
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed+0.2 SD
Recent 0.525 baseline 0.595
Est. wOBA allowed+0.4 SD
Recent 0.218 baseline 0.258
Strikeout rate+2.7 SD
Recent 39.1% baseline 16.1%
Walk rate allowed+0.4 SD
Recent 2.2% baseline 5.4%
Hard-hit rate allowed+0.3 SD
Recent 34.6% baseline 38.3%
Run value allowed / PA-0.2 SD
Recent -0.024 baseline -0.046
Broadcast read: Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 2.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 23rd percentile. Recent sample: 46 BF; prior sample: 372 BF.
Pitcher change profile

Shane Bieber

Toronto Blue Jays | RHP

44.9
Season BF132OPS allowed0.850Est. wOBA allowed0.361Samplemoderate
Biggest changeestimated wOBA allowed +2.7 SD

Estimated wOBA allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 2.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 5th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed7th
0.850
Est. wOBA allowed5th
0.361
Strikeout rate10th
16.7%
Walk rate allowed31st
9.1%
Hard-hit rate allowed5th
46.9%
Run value allowed / PA43rd
0.003
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed+2.7 SD
Recent 0.424 baseline 1.090
Est. wOBA allowed+2.7 SD
Recent 0.184 baseline 0.455
Strikeout rate+0.5 SD
Recent 19.6% baseline 15.1%
Walk rate allowed+1.2 SD
Recent 4.3% baseline 11.6%
Hard-hit rate allowed+1.9 SD
Recent 31.4% baseline 55.6%
Run value allowed / PA+2.0 SD
Recent -0.122 baseline 0.069
Broadcast read: Estimated wOBA allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 2.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 5th percentile. Recent sample: 46 BF; prior sample: 86 BF.
Hitter change profile

Christian Walker

Houston Astros | RHB

42.5
Season PA422OPS0.753Est. wOBA0.322Samplestrong
Biggest changestrikeout rate -2.8 SD

Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 2.8 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 32nd percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS58th
0.753
Est. wOBA54th
0.322
Strikeout rate32nd
23.9%
Walk rate39th
7.8%
Hard-hit rate57th
42.1%
Run value / PA46th
0.009
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS-1.5 SD
Recent 0.389 baseline 0.778
Est. wOBA-1.4 SD
Recent 0.189 baseline 0.332
Strikeout rate-2.8 SD
Recent 44.4% baseline 22.5%
Walk rate+0.2 SD
Recent 7.4% baseline 7.8%
Hard-hit rate-0.7 SD
Recent 33.3% baseline 42.5%
Run value / PA-1.4 SD
Recent -0.125 baseline 0.018
Broadcast read: Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 2.8 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 32nd percentile. Recent sample: 27 PA; prior sample: 395 PA.
Hitter change profile

Xavier Edwards

Miami Marlins | LHB

41.3
Season PA438OPS0.767Est. wOBA0.336Samplestrong
Biggest changestrikeout rate -2.6 SD

Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 2.6 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 92nd percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS63rd
0.767
Est. wOBA66th
0.336
Strikeout rate92nd
13.7%
Walk rate76th
11.0%
Hard-hit rate9th
28.8%
Run value / PA40th
0.002
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS-1.5 SD
Recent 0.416 baseline 0.802
Est. wOBA-1.6 SD
Recent 0.190 baseline 0.349
Strikeout rate-2.6 SD
Recent 32.4% baseline 12.0%
Walk rate-0.9 SD
Recent 5.4% baseline 11.5%
Hard-hit rate+0.6 SD
Recent 34.8% baseline 28.3%
Run value / PA-1.4 SD
Recent -0.126 baseline 0.014
Broadcast read: Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 2.6 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 92nd percentile. Recent sample: 37 PA; prior sample: 401 PA.
League change board

The 30 strongest context signals

The selected stat is the largest absolute direction-aware z-score across OPS, estimated wOBA, strikeout rate, walk rate, hard-hit rate, and run value per plate appearance.

Player Team Role Biggest change Change z Season pct. Recent Prior Signal
Joe Ryan Minnesota Twins pitcher estimated wOBA allowed -4.0 SD 71st 26 453 59.7
Braxton Ashcraft Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher run value allowed per PA -3.7 SD 52nd 20 461 53.5
Jimmy Herget Colorado Rockies pitcher OPS allowed -3.4 SD 4th 20 102 49.3
Ty France San Diego Padres batter run value per PA +3.0 SD 81st 44 226 48.6
Esmerlyn Valdez Pittsburgh Pirates batter walk rate +3.0 SD 92nd 39 100 48.4
Luis Rengifo San Diego Padres batter estimated wOBA +3.2 SD 4th 27 211 48.2
Dylan Crews Washington Nationals batter walk rate +3.0 SD 37th 36 185 47.6
Nasim Nuñez Washington Nationals batter strikeout rate +3.1 SD 45th 32 305 47.5
Hunter Greene Cincinnati Reds pitcher strikeout rate -2.7 SD 96th 49 45 45.5
Keider Montero Detroit Tigers pitcher strikeout rate +2.7 SD 23rd 46 372 45.0
Keaton Winn San Francisco Giants pitcher walk rate allowed -3.1 SD 38th 20 121 44.9
Shane Bieber Toronto Blue Jays pitcher estimated wOBA allowed +2.7 SD 5th 46 86 44.9
Tim Tawa Arizona Diamondbacks batter hard-hit rate +2.8 SD 51st 38 95 44.1
Cade Gibson Miami Marlins pitcher walk rate allowed -3.0 SD 29th 20 99 43.5
Troy Melton Detroit Tigers pitcher walk rate allowed -2.6 SD 45th 47 189 43.2
Will Dion Cleveland Guardians pitcher strikeout rate +2.9 SD 95th 23 55 42.7
Christian Walker Houston Astros batter strikeout rate -2.8 SD 32nd 27 395 42.5
James Outman Detroit Tigers batter hard-hit rate +2.8 SD 25th 25 136 42.1
Walker Buehler San Diego Padres pitcher walk rate allowed -2.8 SD 26th 24 388 41.8
Noah Schultz Chicago White Sox pitcher walk rate allowed +2.6 SD 12th 43 211 41.8
Jeff Hoffman Toronto Blue Jays pitcher strikeout rate -2.8 SD 98th 22 178 41.3
Xavier Edwards Miami Marlins batter strikeout rate -2.6 SD 92nd 37 401 41.3
Reynaldo López Atlanta Braves pitcher OPS allowed -2.8 SD 29th 23 260 41.1
Andrew Benintendi Chicago White Sox batter hard-hit rate -2.7 SD 76th 30 285 41.1
Ryan Feltner Colorado Rockies pitcher OPS allowed -2.5 SD 9th 41 269 40.8
Luis Castillo Seattle Mariners pitcher hard-hit rate allowed +2.7 SD 32nd 27 392 40.5
Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds batter strikeout rate +2.5 SD 18th 41 336 40.2
Bryan Reynolds Pittsburgh Pirates batter strikeout rate -2.5 SD 32nd 38 417 39.8
Heriberto Hernández Miami Marlins batter strikeout rate -2.5 SD 21st 38 223 39.7
Trey Yesavage Toronto Blue Jays pitcher strikeout rate +2.5 SD 66th 42 311 39.7
Interpretation boundary: a +2 SD change means the direction of movement is unusual among qualified peers; it does not mean the player is two standard deviations above league quality. Season percentiles answer the quality question separately. Neither is a projection.

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