Player Trend Engine

MLB player change detection with recent-versus-prior z-scores and full-season league percentiles.

Player intelligence

What changed—and how good is it?

The Trend Engine sifts six hitter and pitcher measures, finds each player’s most unusual recent movement, and keeps the full-season league context beside it.

Two lenses, one readChange z-score shows how many league standard deviations a player’s recent movement sits from ordinary movement in that statistic. Season percentile compares the full-season level with league peers.
Balanced change radar

Eight players whose underlying conversation moved

The board deliberately includes hitters, pitchers, improvements, and declines. Signal priority rewards unusual movement while accounting for recent-sample reliability.

Hitter change profile

Jorge Mateo

Tampa Bay Rays | RHB

58.7
Season PA207OPS0.574Est. wOBA0.251Samplemoderate
Biggest changehard-hit rate -3.87 z

Hard-hit rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.9 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 30th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS1st
0.574
Est. wOBA1st
0.251
Strikeout rate8th
30.9%
Walk rate12th
5.3%
Hard-hit rate30th
35.9%
Run value / PA3rd
-0.050
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS-1.17 z
Recent 0.352 baseline 0.606
Est. wOBA-1.17 z
Recent 0.163 baseline 0.264
Strikeout rate-2.78 z
Recent 48.1% baseline 28.3%
Walk rate-1.15 z
Recent 0.0% baseline 6.1%
Hard-hit rate-3.87 z
Recent 0.0% baseline 39.8%
Run value / PA-0.32 z
Recent -0.073 baseline -0.047
Broadcast read: Hard-hit rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.9 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 30th percentile. Recent sample: 27 PA; prior sample: 180 PA.
Pitcher change profile

Kyle Harrison

Milwaukee Brewers | LHP

55.5
Season BF494OPS allowed0.769Est. wOBA allowed0.331Samplestrong
Biggest changerun value allowed per PA -3.78 z

Run value allowed per PA is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.8 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 31st percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed20th
0.769
Est. wOBA allowed21st
0.331
Strikeout rate84th
27.5%
Walk rate allowed66th
7.3%
Hard-hit rate allowed45th
38.3%
Run value allowed / PA31st
0.011
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed-2.65 z
Recent 1.500 baseline 0.741
Est. wOBA allowed-2.76 z
Recent 0.625 baseline 0.319
Strikeout rate-2.39 z
Recent 9.5% baseline 28.3%
Walk rate allowed-1.47 z
Recent 14.3% baseline 7.0%
Hard-hit rate allowed-0.79 z
Recent 46.2% baseline 38.0%
Run value allowed / PA-3.78 z
Recent 0.390 baseline -0.005
Broadcast read: Run value allowed per PA is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.8 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 31st percentile. Recent sample: 21 BF; prior sample: 473 BF.
Hitter change profile

Kyle Teel

Chicago White Sox | LHB

55.4
Season PA121OPS0.636Est. wOBA0.288Samplemoderate
Biggest changewalk rate +3.42 z

Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 96th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS12th
0.636
Est. wOBA17th
0.288
Strikeout rate0th
37.2%
Walk rate96th
13.2%
Hard-hit rate88th
48.3%
Run value / PA85th
0.040
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS+0.56 z
Recent 0.727 baseline 0.586
Est. wOBA+0.90 z
Recent 0.343 baseline 0.258
Strikeout rate+0.25 z
Recent 35.7% baseline 38.0%
Walk rate+3.42 z
Recent 23.8% baseline 7.6%
Hard-hit rate+0.31 z
Recent 50.0% baseline 47.6%
Run value / PA+1.06 z
Recent 0.101 baseline 0.007
Broadcast read: Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 96th percentile. Recent sample: 42 PA; prior sample: 79 PA.
Hitter change profile

Kyle Tucker

Los Angeles Dodgers | LHB

54.2
Season PA602OPS0.725Est. wOBA0.318Samplestrong
Biggest changeOPS +3.31 z

OPS is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.3 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 47th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS47th
0.725
Est. wOBA50th
0.318
Strikeout rate78th
16.9%
Walk rate92nd
12.6%
Hard-hit rate37th
37.1%
Run value / PA63rd
0.019
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS+3.31 z
Recent 1.435 baseline 0.670
Est. wOBA+2.94 z
Recent 0.565 baseline 0.298
Strikeout rate+1.13 z
Recent 8.9% baseline 17.6%
Walk rate+0.75 z
Recent 15.6% baseline 12.4%
Hard-hit rate+0.51 z
Recent 41.2% baseline 36.8%
Run value / PA+2.41 z
Recent 0.214 baseline 0.003
Broadcast read: OPS is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.3 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 47th percentile. Recent sample: 45 PA; prior sample: 557 PA.
Hitter change profile

Munetaka Murakami

Chicago White Sox | LHB

52.3
Season PA519OPS0.800Est. wOBA0.345Samplestrong
Biggest changehard-hit rate -3.12 z

Hard-hit rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.1 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 99th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS79th
0.800
Est. wOBA79th
0.345
Strikeout rate1st
36.2%
Walk rate100th
16.0%
Hard-hit rate99th
55.1%
Run value / PA94th
0.053
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS-0.91 z
Recent 0.625 baseline 0.819
Est. wOBA-0.74 z
Recent 0.289 baseline 0.351
Strikeout rate-1.87 z
Recent 48.1% baseline 34.9%
Walk rate-0.04 z
Recent 15.4% baseline 16.1%
Hard-hit rate-3.12 z
Recent 25.0% baseline 57.3%
Run value / PA-0.28 z
Recent 0.032 baseline 0.055
Broadcast read: Hard-hit rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.1 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 99th percentile. Recent sample: 52 PA; prior sample: 467 PA.
Pitcher change profile

Dylan Cease

Toronto Blue Jays | RHP

52.3
Season BF689OPS allowed0.543Est. wOBA allowed0.249Samplestrong
Biggest changewalk rate allowed -3.24 z

Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.2 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 14th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed95th
0.543
Est. wOBA allowed92nd
0.249
Strikeout rate97th
34.7%
Walk rate allowed14th
11.3%
Hard-hit rate allowed91st
31.5%
Run value allowed / PA88th
-0.044
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed-0.69 z
Recent 0.749 baseline 0.531
Est. wOBA allowed-0.93 z
Recent 0.353 baseline 0.242
Strikeout rate-0.71 z
Recent 29.3% baseline 35.0%
Walk rate allowed-3.24 z
Recent 26.8% baseline 10.3%
Hard-hit rate allowed+1.41 z
Recent 16.7% baseline 32.3%
Run value allowed / PA-0.79 z
Recent 0.042 baseline -0.049
Broadcast read: Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.2 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 14th percentile. Recent sample: 41 BF; prior sample: 648 BF.
Pitcher change profile

Didier Fuentes

Atlanta Braves | RHP

49.1
Season BF288OPS allowed0.568Est. wOBA allowed0.251Samplestrong
Biggest changehard-hit rate allowed +3.29 z

Hard-hit rate allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.3 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 86th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed91st
0.568
Est. wOBA allowed91st
0.251
Strikeout rate95th
31.6%
Walk rate allowed71st
6.9%
Hard-hit rate allowed86th
32.8%
Run value allowed / PA96th
-0.064
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed+0.65 z
Recent 0.432 baseline 0.581
Est. wOBA allowed+0.58 z
Recent 0.204 baseline 0.255
Strikeout rate-0.31 z
Recent 29.2% baseline 31.8%
Walk rate allowed-0.35 z
Recent 8.3% baseline 6.8%
Hard-hit rate allowed+3.29 z
Recent 0.0% baseline 35.8%
Run value allowed / PA-0.13 z
Recent -0.043 baseline -0.066
Broadcast read: Hard-hit rate allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.3 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 86th percentile. Recent sample: 24 BF; prior sample: 264 BF.
Pitcher change profile

Michael Petersen

Miami Marlins | RHP

45.8
Season BF257OPS allowed0.596Est. wOBA allowed0.267Samplestrong
Biggest changestrikeout rate +3.12 z

Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.1 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 92nd percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed85th
0.596
Est. wOBA allowed85th
0.267
Strikeout rate92nd
30.4%
Walk rate allowed22nd
10.1%
Hard-hit rate allowed13th
42.9%
Run value allowed / PA90th
-0.048
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS allowed+0.14 z
Recent 0.588 baseline 0.596
Est. wOBA allowed+0.26 z
Recent 0.252 baseline 0.268
Strikeout rate+3.12 z
Recent 52.4% baseline 28.4%
Walk rate allowed+1.07 z
Recent 4.8% baseline 10.6%
Hard-hit rate allowed-2.39 z
Recent 66.7% baseline 41.3%
Run value allowed / PA+0.59 z
Recent -0.095 baseline -0.044
Broadcast read: Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.1 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 92nd percentile. Recent sample: 21 BF; prior sample: 236 BF.
Interpretation boundary: a +2.00 z change is two league standard deviations above ordinary recent movement; a -2.00 z change is two below. Direction still depends on the statistic and player perspective. Season percentiles answer the quality question separately. Neither is a projection.

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