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Offensive race 95.5
Yordan Alvarez
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez is building one of baseball’s strongest offensive cases
OPS 0.998; race score 97.6.
Run prevention 93.7
Jacob Misiorowski
Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob Misiorowski is limiting opponent production at an elite rate
OPS allowed 0.475; race score 95.4.
Team intelligence 87.4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers has a new league-wide reporting lead
Los Angeles Dodgers ranks 1st in run generation and 1st in pitching performance, with a usable bullpen and 3 recent risers.
Milestone 85.8
Freddie Freeman
LAD
Freddie Freeman reached 2,500 career hits
Career estimate 2,558.
The Trend Engine
The winds have changed, where are these players heading now?
Our engine searches for the players with the most movement against there season averages.
Hitter change profile
Jonah Cox
San Francisco Giants | RHB
66.4
Season PA 100 OPS 0.794 Est. wOBA 0.337 Sample moderate
Biggest change strikeout rate +4.40 z
Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 0th percentile.
Season context MLB percentile
0 League midpoint 100
What changed Recent vs earlier season
Strikeout rate +4.40 z
Recent 22.4% vs baseline 52.9%
Cooling 50 Improving
Broadcast read: Strikeout rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 0th percentile. Recent sample: 49 PA; prior sample: 51 PA.
Hitter change profile
Jake Bauers
Milwaukee Brewers | LHB
65.8
Season PA 520 OPS 0.882 Est. wOBA 0.380 Sample strong
Biggest change walk rate +4.36 z
Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 100th percentile.
Season context MLB percentile
0 League midpoint 100
What changed Recent vs earlier season
Walk rate +4.36 z
Recent 37.0% vs baseline 14.3%
Cooling 50 Improving
Broadcast read: Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 100th percentile. Recent sample: 46 PA; prior sample: 474 PA.
Pitcher change profile
Sean Burke
Chicago White Sox | RHP
63.2
Season BF 654 OPS allowed 0.682 Est. wOBA allowed 0.298 Sample strong
Biggest change walk rate allowed -3.74 z
Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 43rd percentile.
Season context MLB percentile
Est. wOBA allowed 58th
0.298
Hard-hit rate allowed 43rd
38.6%
0 League midpoint 100
What changed Recent vs earlier season
Walk rate allowed -3.74 z
Recent 25.9% vs baseline 7.0%
Cooling 50 Improving
Broadcast read: Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 43rd percentile. Recent sample: 54 BF; prior sample: 600 BF.
Pitcher change profile
Riley Cornelio
Washington Nationals | RHP
58.4
Season BF 116 OPS allowed 0.677 Est. wOBA allowed 0.305 Sample moderate
Biggest change walk rate allowed +4.02 z
Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 0th percentile.
Season context MLB percentile
Est. wOBA allowed 50th
0.305
Hard-hit rate allowed 0th
48.5%
0 League midpoint 100
What changed Recent vs earlier season
Walk rate allowed +4.02 z
Recent 0.0% vs baseline 20.8%
Cooling 50 Improving
Broadcast read: Walk rate allowed is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 0th percentile. Recent sample: 20 BF; prior sample: 96 BF.
Career Path Engine
Where have careers like this gone next?
Games, age, offensive shape, and historical survival turn today’s player line into a range of career paths.
CIN · 121 career games Strong neighbor fit
Sal Stewart
At 121 career games, Sal Stewart’s historical neighbors point to a median 1,503 more games. The closest current career shape is David Wright.
Legacy Projection No Hall yet
The comparable group has not usually finished on a Hall-level path.
Closest path David Wright Projected AVG / OBP / SLG .274 / .340 / .468 Expected HR pace 20.8 per 600 PA
2027 estimate 25 HR 681 PA · .274 / .340 / .468 Regular Role
2028 estimate 25 HR 681 PA · .274 / .340 / .468 Regular Role
2029 estimate 25 HR 681 PA · .274 / .340 / .468 Regular Role
ARI · 582 career games Strong neighbor fit
Corbin Carroll
At 582 career games, Corbin Carroll’s historical neighbors point to a median 1,400 more games. The closest current career shape is Barry Bonds.
Legacy Projection Hall bound?
This career shape frequently appears beside eventual Hall of Famers.
Closest path Barry Bonds Projected AVG / OBP / SLG .274 / .351 / .476 Expected HR pace 23.0 per 600 PA
2027 estimate 26 HR 703 PA · .274 / .351 / .476 Regular Role
2028 estimate 26 HR 703 PA · .274 / .351 / .476 Regular Role
2029 estimate 26 HR 703 PA · .274 / .351 / .476 Regular Role
WSN · 194 career games Strong neighbor fit
Daylen Lile
At 194 career games, Daylen Lile’s historical neighbors point to a median 1,534 more games. The closest current career shape is Brett Lawrie.
Legacy Projection No Hall yet
The comparable group has not usually finished on a Hall-level path.
Closest path Brett Lawrie Projected AVG / OBP / SLG .278 / .332 / .449 Expected HR pace 18.2 per 600 PA
2027 estimate 20 HR 657 PA · .278 / .332 / .449 Regular Role
2028 estimate 20 HR 657 PA · .278 / .332 / .449 Regular Role
2029 estimate 19 HR 641 PA · .278 / .332 / .449 Regular Role
Simulation center preview
Probabilities with the uncertainty left in
The future daily board will report a lean, a score range, and the factors behind the number — never a naked percentage.
Game 1 · scheduled slate Clear lean
Away Minnesota Twins 35.5%
Home Detroit Tigers 64.5%
Mean score 4.4 – 5.6 Model total 10.0 One-run game 31.9%
Detroit Tigers 64.5% 20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters
Game 2 · scheduled slate Clear lean
Away Toronto Blue Jays 38.0%
Home Athletics 62.0%
Mean score 3.5 – 4.3 Model total 7.8 One-run game 36.5%
Athletics 62.0% 20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters
Game 3 · scheduled slate Near toss-up
Away St. Louis Cardinals 47.5%
Home San Francisco Giants 52.5%
Mean score 3.7 – 3.8 Model total 7.5 One-run game 39.1%
San Francisco Giants 52.5% 20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters
From our writers
Stories from the Sabrhood
Original stories crafted from our own research engine.
Boston Red Sox | Hitting
There is a heat wave in Boston, centralized entirely in Caleb Durbin’s bat.
Boston Red Sox | Pitching
A pitch-level look at Brayan Bello’s arsenal, results, and changing approach.
New York Mets | Prospects
Can an early-season call-up change the direction of a club searching for a spark?
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